The prosperity of the machinery industry continues to rise, and the growth rate of domestic demand is stable.
the prosperity of the machinery industry continues to rise, and the growth rate of domestic demand is stable.
China Construction Machinery Information
Guide: we are firmly optimistic about the long-term development prospects of the machinery industry, and believe that the industry can benefit from the domestic and global economic recovery first. It is expected that the industry prosperity will continue to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2009, and the industry prosperity in 2010 will be higher than that in 2009, It is expected that the annual growth rate of gross sales output value is expected to reach about 17%
we are firmly optimistic about the long-term development prospects of the machinery industry, and believe that the industry will be the first to benefit from the domestic and global economic recovery. It is expected that the industry prosperity will continue to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2009, and that the industry prosperity in 2010 will be higher than that in 2009. It is expected that the annual gross sales output value will increase by about 17%. At present, the average PE level of the industry is 22.7 times, and the PE level of leading companies in 2010 is less than 20 times, which is low compared with other industries. Therefore, it maintains its investment rating of "stronger than the market"
it is suggested to focus on four types of companies, namely, companies with outstanding comprehensive competitiveness, companies with a high proportion of exports, companies directly related to fixed asset investment, and companies with policy support or concepts of low-carbon, military industry and asset restructuring, and still maintain Sany, XCMG technology, Zoomlion, Taiyuan Heavy industry, China shipbuilding "Buy" rating of Shantui shares and times new material and "overweight" rating of Tianma shares and other companies
it is worth looking forward to a substantial rebound in exports
with the increasing expectation of a sustained recovery of the world economy, we predict that the overseas demand of the machinery industry will rebound effectively in 2010. Considering that most of China's machinery products still account for a relatively limited proportion in the overseas market, while the international competitiveness of the products is increasing day by day, we judge that it is a high probability event for the industry's exports to rebound significantly in 2010, It is expected that the decline of industrial exports in 2009 will narrow from 23.9% in September to about 18%
according to the analysis, there is a significant positive correlation between the export of China's machinery industry and the global economic growth, especially the economic growth of developed countries. If the global economy grows by 1%, the export of machinery industry will increase by 8.9%; If the economy of developed countries grows by 1%, the export of machinery industry will increase by 8.6%. Based on this calculation and adopting the average value of 2.5% of the latest global economic forecasts by IMF, the United Nations and the world bank, the global economic recovery in 2010 will drive the export of China's machinery industry to increase by 22.25%. According to the forecast of CITIC macro group, taking into account the exchange rate, export trade friction and other factors, it is estimated that the average level of China's foreign trade exports in 2010 will be 10.5%, so we predict that the growth rate of machinery exports in 2010 will be about 15%
the growth rate of domestic demand is stable
we judge that the general policy of the country to ensure economic growth by expanding investment in the short term will not change. Considering the lag of investment in the domestic demand of heavy machinery, railway equipment, machine tools and other sub industries, we judge that the output value growth of the industry in 2010 will continue to increase year-on-year, from about 13% in 2009 to about 17% in 2010
in terms of policies, the government's support for the machinery industry has been increasing in 2009, and has successively issued a series of policies and measures, such as "value-added tax transformation", "special implementation of high-end CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment", "revitalization plan of equipment manufacturing industry", "revitalization plan of shipbuilding industry", etc. We judge that these supportive policies will continue to stimulate the domestic demand of the industry, promote industrial upgrading, and have a far-reaching impact on improving the international competitiveness of the industry. At present, some policy effects have begun to appear. For example, the 1.5 trillion yuan railway investment plan in the past two years has pulled the prosperity of railway related industries. We expect that the effects of this series of supportive policies will continue to be reflected in 2010
at the same time, we believe that the cost pressure of the machinery industry in 2010 is small. In 2009, the price of steel and other factors remained relatively low, which effectively eased the cost pressure of the machinery industry, especially for industries with high steel cost, such as shipbuilding, heavy machinery and construction machinery. We judge that it is less likely that commodity prices and loan interest rates will rebound significantly in the short term before the global economy recovers completely. However, as the quantity increases, according to the prediction of the steel group of CITIC Securities Research Department, the year-on-year increase in the average steel price in 2010 may be about 10%-15%. Considering that the raw material procurement of machinery enterprises is usually 3 to 6 months ahead of the actual production, we expect that the overall cost level of the industry in the first half of 2010 is relatively low, and there may be a slight rebound in the second half of 2010, and the cost level of the whole year will be lower than that in 2009
focus on the sub industries with large export elasticity
and benefit investment exceeding expectations
we believe that the following three sub industries may have better performance in 2010. The first is the sub industry with large export elasticity. The sustained recovery of the global economy in 2010 has become a consensus expectation, and the overseas demand of the machinery industry will rebound steadily; At the same time, considering the high cost performance of China's machinery products and the relatively low export base in 2009, we believe that the export of the industry in 2010 may exceed expectations, so the sub industries with large export elasticity may benefit from it. The representative sub industries include shipbuilding, container, port machinery, construction machinery and heavy machinery
the second is the sub industries highly related to investment. In 2010, the growth rate of China's investment in infrastructure and real estate will remain stable. If the above investment growth rate again exceeds the expectation, the sub industries with high investment correlation will have better performance. The representative sub industries include engineering machinery industry, heavy machinery industry, railway equipment industry, etc
the third is the sub industry mainly supported by the policy. The escort of the national support policy has always been an important reason for the rapid development of the machinery industry. In 2010, the country may have a series of follow-up policies in the fields of new energy, energy conservation and emission reduction, major equipment and so on. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant products and manually realize the development opportunities of loadings and companies
construction machinery in 2009, construction machinery showed a good overall development trend, and the prosperity rose month by month. We believe that the long-term development prospect of the industry is promising, and the growth rate of industry revenue in 2010 will be higher than that in 2009. In terms of domestic demand, the domestic demand for construction machinery mainly comes from infrastructure construction investment and real estate investment. Considering that the projects already started in 2009 will continue to be constructed, it is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment will still reach more than 15%; For real estate investment, according to the prediction of the macro group of CITIC Securities, up to 90% of plastic products in the world have never been recycled. In 2010, the growth rate of real estate investment was about 20%. Considering the infrastructure and real estate investment next year, we judge that the domestic demand for construction machinery will still maintain a good growth momentum. It is estimated that the domestic demand growth rate in 2010 will be about 17%. In terms of external demand, affected by the financial crisis, although the export of the construction machinery industry decreased significantly in 2009, the competitiveness of Chinese products that must be manipulated under the guidance of skilled staff did not decline. It is believed that with the recovery of the global economy, the sharp decline in the export of the industry in 2009 is a foreshadowing for the future export growth of the industry. We predict that the export growth of construction machinery will reach more than 20% in 2010. We use the relational formula (sales revenue = domestic consumption + export import) to predict the growth rate of the sales revenue of the construction machinery industry in the next five years, and judge that the average annual growth rate of the industry revenue in the next few years is 20%-15%
in the shipbuilding industry, we believe that the oversupply of the shipping industry in the next few years is not as serious as the previous market worried, so the gradual improvement of the shipping market in the future should be a high probability event; As an upstream, the international shipbuilding industry is expected to achieve a moderate recovery after the panic period, which is reflected in the stabilization of the new ship price and the gradual recovery of the new ship order volume to a reasonable level. There is no doubt that the industry as a whole will maintain a high growth rate this year. We predict that China's shipbuilding completion volume will still increase by more than 25% in 2010, and there will continue to be bright spots. The new ship order volume will gradually return to a reasonable level, that is, the new ship order volume in a single month is about 1.2 to 1.8 million tons
considering that the government will increase the investment in railway and urban rail transit in the next few years, the corresponding procurement of railway vehicles and urban rail transit vehicles will also increase significantly. Therefore, it can be expected that the rail transit manufacturing industry will usher in huge development opportunities in the next three to five years. We predict that the average annual growth rate of rail transit manufacturing income can reach 30% in the next three to five years
the demand for machine tools in the machine tool industry is at the end of the cycle. As the prosperity of downstream industries rises month by month, the demand for machine tools will gradually begin to pick up. However, considering that the new orders signed by machine tool enterprises in 2009 will affect the growth of the industry in 2010, we expect that the revenue growth of the machine tool industry in 2010 will be about 10%. As machine tool enterprises are mainly state-owned enterprises, we believe that while paying attention to machine tool orders, the management improvement and asset integration of listed machine tool companies will also become important factors affecting the performance of the company's stock price. At present, Shenyang Machine Tool Co., Ltd. has room for management improvement, and Qinchuan Development Co., Ltd. has expectations for asset integration